I am trying to revise something for the NHL season, but am testing this live against MLB since it's the only game in town right now. MLB - 15 games - 3 games in each series - using a 3 step progression - betting the board - dogs only There are four distribution outcomes for the winner of a 3 game series: It would look like this: For this example I am expecting no more than a 2 loss interval for series 'a', 'b', and 'c'.
I am expecting to lose my progression bet on series 'd'. The Progression I have 15 separate 3 step progressions - I will refer to them as 'cells' numbered C1 to C I want to assimulate randomness as best as possilbe, meaing that I do not want 2 teams playing 3 consecutive games within the same cell.
For my live test I just use the rotation schedule. For example, if a series began on a Mondays and there were 10 games, they would be assigned C1 through C10 in order of the rotation.
Tuesdays line-up would begin from the top of the schedule at C Night games are days games the following day, and so forth. This means that while the progressions are actively running, on the first game of a series, the Baltimore Orioles could land on any step of an active progression - Step 1, 2 or 3 - depending on which cell is assigned and what step is active within that particular cell.
I am using a 1 - 3 - 7 progression. This allows me to win 1 unit for every step within the progression. After a win, the progression resets to 1. The Progression looks like this: This is just a basic concept that I am testing to see if it holds enough water.
There are several specific things I want to plug in around this, but before anything else, the math has to make sense. The ratio of favorites to dogs would determine how this number would move up and down.
I am simply curious whether it would have any value as far as measuring deviation swings. In this example I used 3 dogs over 12 outcomes. I subtituted the word 'typical' for expectation because I am aware that my example does not include many variables. A pattern that is W - W - L. The wins in this pattern could have been 'dog' teams. That means instead of 3 dogs hitting over 12 games played, 4. I do not know how to formulate the equation to express this in percentages.
Favorite to Dog ratio is 9 to 6 for Game 1, Game 2, and Game 3. What is the expectation of a 3 game sweep and how many? One last piece it that a 3 game sweep at: Thanks in advance for everyone's help, and if this problem has been posted times before Dog in last 3 games straight is in the 4th game for example SU: Thanks for viewing my post and crunching the math for me Danshan11!
Throwing out progressions altogether, even by adjusting the unit amount depending on the average dog price on any given day would not make a difference? If it is a nightmare to get a bet placed or takes forever, you may end up making a mistake or costing yourself money by missing out on a bet. This is definitely one of the most important criteria especially for your "home base" NFL betting site which we will discuss shortly.
One of the newer trends in NFL betting is allowing you to make wagers during the course of the game. In the past, all bets had to be made before the game started and then it was time just to sit and sweat the game.
Now, with the help of technology, you can place additional bets as the game goes on. These options are not available at every site so if this interests you, make sure that you find a site that offers this.
Also, each site that offers it will offer it a different level meaning that some sites will only have a few in-game betting options and some sites will have a ton. Find the site that has the options that fit your needs best. While the most options sounds like the best, it can be overwhelming for casual and recreational bettors especially if the site's interface for live betting isn't top notch.
When we talk about your home base NFL betting site, we're referring to the site where you will house most of your action. Even though you will be line shopping on all of your bets because you're a smart bettor we will cover this in a minute , this will be the first place you start and where you place most of your bets if all the lines come out the same on a particular bet.
When looking for this site, there are a few things that are going to be the most important factors to keep in mind. First, you are going to want to find a site that offers a wide variety of NFL bets.
You're not going to want just basic bets, but you're going to want some flexibility in what they offer in case you see new angles that you want to press. Some sites that you're going to use strictly for line shopping won't have all of these options. If you're curious about the different types of bets offered on the NFL, this link we've put together has an extensive breakdown of each type of bet as well as associated strategies to go with each type.
Second, you are going to want this site to have an extremely user-friendly interface that you are fully comfortable with using. As you will be spending the most time on this site, you are going to want to make sure it doesn't drive you bonkers to use. It needs to be fast with a clean and easy to navigate interface.
Additionally, you may want to look into a site that has some research tools to help you make your picks. While this isn't necessary, it could be a bonus to help you out and would be great to have on your home platform. The Super Bowl is the Championship game between the winners of each conference to determine that season's champion. It's also one of the largest betting events of the year.
Betting on the Super Bowl brings out sports bettors that never bet on anything else all year. It brings out recreational and first-time bettors and is a great way to get people introduced to the hobby or money making opportunity. Betting on the Super Bowl is much like betting on a regular game except on a much bigger scale. The big effect on selecting a site to bet on during the Super Bowl is that sites that normally don't offer much NFL action will offer a lot of bets on the big game.
What does this mean for you? This means there are going to be more sportsbooks offering lines which mean a lot more opportunities to find a great line on the bet you are interested in. To help you out with selecting a site specifically for betting on the Super Bowl, we've put together a full guide on the event and how to bet on it.
Not only do we recommend the best sites to place your wagers at, but we also give you some great background information and important betting strategies. We also included on this page a chart that shows how much money was wagered each year in Las Vegas on the big game and how much the casino sportsbooks made or lost on each game. One of the fastest growing sects of betting on the NFL is daily fantasy football betting.
If you've ever played in a fantasy football league with your buddies, this is very similar except a few major differences. First, the prize pools are usually a lot bigger for smaller buy-ins because there are so many players competing for tournament formats. Second, instead of being a season long, it is short term and can last a week, a couple days, or for a single part of a day. The third difference that greatly affects strategy is that any player can be owned by any contestant.
Instead of going rounds of drafts where selected players are off limits, each player is given a salary cap, and all players are assigned dollar amounts based on perceived value. You can select any players you want to fill your slots as long as you stay under the salary cap. If you're interested in finding out more about daily fantasy football DFS , we've included a link to a page that will break everything down for you as well as give you some strategy and logistical suggestions to get you started.
Betting on Daily Fantasy Football. If you're brand new to sports betting, line shopping may be a new concept but one of the most important that you will ever learn in your online betting journey. Line shopping could be the single determining factor in whether or not you are a profitable or losing sports bettor.
It may sound like we're being drama queens here, but line shopping is, in fact, that important. For those of you that have never heard the term before, line shopping is the act of checking multiple sportsbooks to see what odds they are offering on the same bet. It is extremely common for different sportsbooks to offer varying odds on the exact same bet.
Let's take a look at an example to show you how important it is. You pull up your sportsbook, and you see the following line:. Is this a good bet? The answer is yes. Both Teams To Score Yes: If you add up the probability of all scorelines in which both teams find the back of the net e.
In the search for value, you may also consider looking at other markets which are goal based. However, the below table gives the probability of a few of the most common markets by using the principle of the above bullet points:. The next step is to turn the probability into decimal odds. To convert from probabilities into decimal odds, just do the reverse, i.
The table below shows the associated odds for these probabilities: Remember that bookies include an edge — called an overround — when they work out there odds so that they can guarantee profit. It is therefore important to add this margin into your odds to best reflect this overround. Simply multiply the true odds by the margin, for example, Odds x 1. The table below shows the new odds with the margin included: Now comes the fun part; deciding on where to place your bets.
You have your own odds and now need to compare these against the odds from bookmakers. This is the core of value betting which was discussed in a previous article. If you get value, then you bet — although you may wish to qualify out some bets by doing additional research to see which players are injured, motivational factors, played in Europe mid-week etc.
The below is used for illustrative purposes, but gives you an indication of the type of thing you may find when comparing the odds. In this scenario, the value is with backing the draw, backing the Aston Villa win and backing Under 2. Now go make some profit! If everything looks OK with the model, you will then need to expand it to include the same calculations for every other game in that league.
At the moment, we are only calculating the odds and bets for one match. Rather than use the same table, it makes sense to set up another 9 of these tables so that you can do one for each league game.
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