Small edges, large points – How Tennis odds move

Can Betfair graphs really predict the final outcome of an event? Rosario Central — Defensa Y Justicia. This software allows me to look at the overall horse racing market with a lot more information on offer through various charts, graphs and real time price movements showing bets as they are placed. Mikhail Kukushkin — Denis Istomin. The key factor here is the difference in skill between the two players. Odds Filter

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I believe so and I have a couple of examples to prove that. My latest experience regarding predicting final results with the help of Betfair Graphs was the night of the Oscars A week ago I had posted in my sports blog an article where I did basic technical analysis on the Betfair graphs of popular nominations.

Although most of the favorites won and was not that difficult predicting wins of The Hurt Locker and the like, what surprised even myself was my prediction on the Foreign Language Film category. To quote from my original article: A small bet on El Secreto de Sus Ojos might be worth the risk!

The odds at the time paid 5 times the original bet. A nice win without knowing anything about the movie or the latest news! Just by simply looking at the Betfair graph. Long term Betfair trading has led me to recognize common betting patterns and although a Betfair trader can make money out of them, they eventually help to predict the final result of each event. By applying elementary technical analysis on Betfair graphs not only are we able to trade profitably and profit before the event comes to an end, but also we can correctly predict the winner in most cases.

Monday, September 17, When predicting the result of a Tennis match this is what you are attempting to do. This is essentially what Tennis Trader does, it works out the theoretical advantage, then projects it forward. Of course, that makes it sensitive to small individual variations across all those points. As the match evolves so does the momentum shift from one player to another.

The key factor here is the difference in skill between the two players. I say skill, but at the highest level, most players are relatively equal skilled at Tennis. Every part of those differences has a critical part to play in the match, even tiny differences. Have a look at the chart on this post and you can see just how important small percentages are in a Tennis match. I have compared two players and varied the advantage one has of winning a point against another.

You can see the variance running along the x-axis. Tennis matches contain many points where this advantage can play out. Even if it is very slight, it gets significantly magnified over the entire match.

But any advantage, no matter how small, gets magnified over the entire match.







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In his latest piece, Caan Berry explains how you can use software to make profit in a matter of seconds taking advantage of short-term price movements To help personalise content, tailor your experience and help us improve our services, Betfair uses cookies. Tennis Betting Tips from Betfair Tennis. Join Betfair today for a free Tennis bet and read our free Tennis tips and Tennis picks. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty. Tennis on the Betfair Exchange lets you set the odds yourself on over Tennis events. Bet on top markets like: WTA Hiroshima ; Istanbul Challenger ; Banja Luka Challenger Choose from over 17 Tennis competitions, and place a Tennis bet, .