Understanding Betting Odds Calculators
Finding value in any bet is extremely important. This tool makes it simple. By simply entering a teams previous 5 results available from many sources, including BBC Sport and Statarea , the tool will calculate the likely result in the next match between the 2 teams.
Any online punter knows that not every bet will win. You are increasing your chances of beating the bookies by opting for value bets, but even then you can never be certain of winning. The stake calculator is the answer to this problem. It prevents you from over exposing your betting bank. The first part of the tool simply allows you to calculate an appropriate stake based upon the size of your betting bank.
At this point, remember that you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. The second part of the tool is marginally more sophisticated, but again, very simple to use. It is based on the Kelly Criteria. It is designed to work out what bet you should make by analysing:. This is what makes this a value bet, because the chances of the coin landing on heads is greater than the probability reflected in the odds on offer. This is a great exercise and will help you develop your ability to find value bets.
You sit down and look at the upcoming fixtures in the leagues or tournaments you bet on and come up with what you think the odds should be for each match.
You do this without looking at any bookmaker odds. What you want to come up with is what we refer to as 'the uncomfortable compromise'. You're not setting the odds you would like to see the bookmakers offer, you are setting odds that you would not feel comfortable betting on yourself. In this task, you are essentially playing the role of the bookmaker. We can't emphasise how helpful this task can be to a punter who just starting out in sports betting. Setting your own odds gets you thinking in terms of probabilities and by checking the results of your own odds, it allows you to pit your betting wits against the experienced bookmakers.
It takes time to do. Think of it like going to the betting gym. There are days you may not want to do it, but in the long run, your betting fitness will only improve. This is key to developing an intuitive sense for value. The task is to come to what we refer to as 'the uncomfortable compromise'. You're not composing the odds you would like to see the bookmakers post, you are composing odds that you would not feel comfortable taking yourself.
We can't emphasise how helpful this task can be to an aspiring punter just starting out. It gets your head thinking in terms of probabilities and by checking the results of your own prices, it allows you to pit yourself against the shrewd and experienced bookmakers.
There can be weeks where you can't be bothered doing it. But doing this religiously each week of the season for the sport or league you plan to specialise in can quickly sharpen your nose for value. Don't ever forget that it's a betting market. The pull and sway of general opinion is going to set the odds. Making this a habitual way of thinking is not only hard to do, but can at times reduce the sport you love so much, to a matter of mere economics.
Sometimes you might wish you could just watch a football match and not be wondering about how the outcome may impact next week's odds or how the overwhelming number of casual punters might persuade the odds for an upcoming match in a particular direction based on what they have seen in this match.
Will that persuasion offer value in the opposite direction? Will the market over-react? Once your head gets wired in this way, it's very hard to undo.
It might mean an end to your romantic notions of the noble purity of sport. But for understanding and identifying value betting, that's a good thing. You don't know where you're going if you don't know where you've been. Much of the work in developing a mindset for value is in reviewing how your previous assessments have performed. Where did you get it right?
Where did you get it wrong? When you start out pricing up matches, you're prone to exhibit pre-conceived biases. Some may be accurate. Does the market over-value it? Does the market have a general and long-term bias for or against particular clubs or clubs playing in particular situations? All of this can help you tune your mind to value. What else did you expect it to be? Never think you know it all and always be prepared to reassess.
It's this kind of study, review and analysis that will keep you one step ahead of the market. Like developing any kind of skill or talent, developing your ability to find value bets takes time. The development of an intuitive sense for betting value and 'gut feel' for the betting markets will often provide the basis for any success going forward, even if you plan a more abstract approach such as the development of a betting model.
Knowledge is power and the greatest knowledge comes through experience. And experience worth anything is experience well earned. Finally, recognise that it takes time.
It's like developing any kind of craft. Even if you intend to develop sophisticated betting models for predicting the probable outcomes of matches, the development of an intuitive sense for value and 'gut feel' for the betting markets will often provide the basis for even such an abstract approach. The username or password you entered is incorrect.
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